Yoshinobu Yamamoto's best fits, contract prediction

As mid-tier free-agent starters such as Kenta Maeda, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson come off the board, right-hander Lucas Giolito looms as a rather interesting case.

Giolito, who turns 30 on July 14, is the youngest domestic starter on the market after lefty Julio Urías, who was placed on administrative leave in early September after being arrested for suspicion of a felony charge of corporal injury on a spouse. Giolito also offers the durability teams are seeking, ranking eighth in the league in innings pitched over the past six seasons.

The problem for Giolito is that he pitched poorly after getting traded to the Angels and then Guardians last season, producing a 6.96 ERA in 63 1/3 innings after starting out with a 3.79 ERA in 121 innings for the White Sox. His strikeout rate was the league’s 16th best, his walk rate the eighth worst. And he allowed 41 homers, most in the AL.

So, what kind of deal can he expect? The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted two years, $24 million. MLB Trade Rumors had him at two years, $44 million.

A three-year deal with multiple opt-outs could be another possibility. So might a longer deal with a lower AAV and single opt-out, similar to the five-year, $77 million contract Rodríguez signed with the Tigers, then opted out of after two years.

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